Conventional wisdom among the so-called NBA experts has Dirk Nowitzki as the leading MVP candidate, with Steve Nash the closest competitor. LeBron James is apparently not in their class because he supposedly had a subpar first half of the season and because the Cavaliers' record is not as good as the Mavericks or Suns. Conventional wisdom is wrong.
Head To Head
If you watched the two games between the Cavaliers and Mavericks this season, I don't see how you can think Nowitzki is better than LeBron. In the first meeting in Dallas, LeBron shut down Nowitzki in the last five minutes of a close game. Critics says LeBron is a terrible defender. How can the leading MVP candidate not do anything against a terrible defender in the last five minutes of the game?
Contrast LeBron's defense on Nowitzki with the Mavericks' defense on LeBron. The Mavericks were double-teaming and helping on LeBron the whole game, daring anyone other than LeBron to score, and he still scored 39 points. But the haters would prefer to focus on LeBron missing two free throws and two three-point attempts at the end of the game. Why pay attention to the first 47 minutes of the game?
I attended the second meeting, and the Cavaliers coaching staff screwed up by not putting LeBron on Nowitzki until the two minute mark of the fourth quarter, after Nowitzki had hit several baskets to put the Mavericks up by double digits. I also noticed Nowitzki scoring several times when his defender left to help guard another Mavericks player. I don't remember LeBron's man leaving him to help out on other Cavaliers players.
But It's About Winning
If you look at the NBA standings, you will see that the Dallas Mavericks have a better record than the Cleveland Cavaliers. The experts say that makes Dirk Nowitzki more valuable than LeBron James.
What it tells me is that Dirk Nowitzki has better teammates than LeBron James. How does having better teammates make a player more valuable?
What I find interesting is the experts rip the rest of the Cavalier team. Whenever the Cavaliers play on TNT, Charles Barkley always mentions the fact that the Cavaliers need a point guard and an outside shooter. Other experts will also talk about how terrible the Cavalier point guards are. They will tell you about how awful Larry Hughes and Zydrunas Ilgauskas have played this year. They will tell you about Drew Gooden's inconsistency and Anderson Varejao's lack of polish on the offensive end.
What record can you expect for a team with one star and a terrible supporting cast? It seems like a .500 record is the best you can hope for? Dwyane Wade had the Miami Heat a couple of games below .500 when Shaq was hurt. Carmelo Anthony's Denver Nuggets have hovered around .500 for most of the season. Allen Iverson led the 76ers to 38 wins last year. Kobe Bryant led the Lakers to 45 wins last year, but he at least had Lamar Odom to help out. With LeBron's terrible supporting cast, a 34-34 record after 68 games should be a best-case scenario.
But the Cavaliers' record is 41-27, 14 games over .500, which is the 7th best record in the NBA. How can they have such a good record with a collection of stiffs? It must be LeBron. But the experts expect LeBron to lead a collection of stiffs to 55-60 wins. LeBron is supposed to win as many games as Nowitzki, Steve Nash, and Tim Duncan. But Nowitzki has players like Josh Howard, Jason Terry, and Jerry Stackhouse to help him. Steve Nash has Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire, both All-Stars. Tim Duncan has Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. LeBron has no such help, but he can't be MVP unless he can win as many games as teams with multiple All-Star players.
But LeBron Stunk in the First Half of the Season
The experts say you have to play well the whole season to be MVP. LeBron's terrible first half disqualifies him from MVP consideration. Let's look at LeBron's numbers in November, December, and January, his crappy months.
November: 27.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 6.7 assists per game
December: 27.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists per game
January: 26.9 points, 7 rebounds, 5.8 assists per game
He really shit the bed during the first three months of the season, didn't he? 27 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists a game. What an embarrassment. My brother should demand a refund for his season tickets. But it's about wins and losses, not numbers, right? Let's look at the Cavaliers' record for LeBron's three month slump.
November: 9-6
December: 8-6
January: 9-7
Three consecutive winning months with no supporting cast. Where is the terrible first half?
But the Cavaliers are 3-0 Without LeBron
LeBron James has missed three games due to injury this year, and the Cavaliers have won them all. LeBron can't be MVP because his team wins without him. But let's look at the three wins.
Win #1: a road win over the 76ers (26-42)
Win #2: a home win over the Warriors (32-37, 8-27 on the road)
Win #3: a home win over the Kings (29-39, 11-24 on the road)
Three wins over teams with a combined record of 87-118, two of them at home over teams with a combined record of 19-51 on the road. LeBron sure is holding this Cavalier team back.
I guess Nowitzki and Nash are more deserving MVP candidates. Why give the MVP to the best player, the player who means the most to his team, and the player who is leading a collection of stiffs to a second straight 50 win season when you can give it to an inferior player who happens to have better teammates?
