May 27, 2010

Defending Danny Ferry

It's fashionable for basketball writers (I'm looking at you, Bill Simmons) to criticize Danny Ferry for not getting LeBron James an All-Star sidekick, the Scottie Pippen to LeBron's Jordan, or a core of young talent around him. Why couldn't Ferry be more like Sam Presti, the GM of the Thunder, who surrounded Kevin Durant with Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, and James Harden? The reason Ferry couldn't do what Presti did was because Ferry had much less to work with. This post shows how little Ferry had to work with.

Put yourself in Danny Ferry's place. It's June 2005, and you've been hired to build a team around LeBron James. There are three ways to improve a team: the draft, trades, and free agency.

Draft

The draft is the best way to add young talent to your team, but the caliber of talent available depends on where you draft. Here's where the Cavaliers have drafted during the Ferry era.

  • 2005: No draft picks
  • 2006: 25th
  • 2007: No draft picks
  • 2008: 19th
  • 2009: 30th

Ferry's predecessor, Jim Paxson, traded away the first round picks in 2005 and 2007. So in five years, Ferry had only 3 first round picks: 19, 25, and 30. The chances of drafting a star player at the end of the first round are miniscule. Most star players are drafted within the first five picks. Add the fact that the 2006 NBA Draft was weak because it was the first draft after high school players were banned from entering the NBA out of high school, and the chances of drafting a great player got slimmer.

What star player did Ferry pass on? The best player Danny Ferry didn't draft was Paul Millsap, but I don't think Millsap would have been enough to get the Cavaliers past the Celtics and Magic.

Contrast that with Sam Presti, who picked at #5 in 2007, #4 in 2008, and #3 in 2009. I wonder why Kevin Durant has young talent around him while LeBron doesn't. You can get better players at picks 3, 4, and 5 than you can get at 19, 25, and 30? Shocking.

Trades

Another option to improve your team is with trades, but to make trades you need players that other teams want. Let's look at the roster Ferry inherited (besides LeBron)

  • DeSagana Diop
  • Drew Gooden
  • Lucious Harris
  • Zydrunas Ilgauskas
  • Luke Jackson
  • Jeff McInnis
  • Jerome Moiso
  • Ira Newble
  • Sasha Pavlovic
  • Eric Snow
  • Robert Traylor
  • Anderson Varejao
  • Dajuan Wagner
  • Jiri Welsch
  • Scott Williams

If you were a GM of an NBA team, would you trade a high draft pick or an All-Star caliber player for any of those players? Without any tradable assets Ferry was left with trading for overpaid players unwanted by their current teams, such as Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace, Mo Williams, Shaq, and Antawn Jamison. Jamison was just overpaid, not overpaid and unwanted.

Free Agency

The last way to improve a team is through free agency, and it is the most difficult way to improve a team. The NBA's collective bargaining rules allow teams to offer their prospective free agents more money, which means star players make more money by staying with their teams. Add the fact that Cleveland is not a hot free agent destination, even with LeBron, and getting a star player via free agency becomes more difficult.

The Cavaliers had a lot of cap room in 2005, and Ferry used the money to sign Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall, Alan Henderson, and Damon Jones. Those signings did not work well for the Cavaliers, but read the list of free agents in 2005. Who should the Cavaliers have signed instead? Remember that Ray Allen and Michael Redd re-signed with their teams. The best unrestricted free agents I can see are Chris Andersen (Birdman), Robert Horry, and Matt Barnes, none of whom is a star player.

If you say that Ferry should have saved his money and not signed Hughes, Marshall, and Jones, remember the roster Ferry inherited. LeBron's rookie contract was coming to an end. If Ferry stayed with the roster he inherited, LeBron may have refused to sign a contract extension. Would you have taken that chance?

Conclusion

To anyone who says Danny Ferry failed to surround LeBron with good players, what should he have done? What draft picks, trades, and free agent signings would have gotten LeBron the supporting cast he needed? What would have gotten LeBron the same core of young talent Kevin Durant has?